Transmission Dynamics of Mpox in Peru During the 2022 Outbreak
In July 2022, mpox was declared an international public health emergency because of a surge in cases across Europe and America. This study assessed transmission dynamics and factors associated with hospitalization during the 2022 mpox outbreak in Peru. We performed a cross-sectional study using the...
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2025
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| author | M. Gabriela Soto-Cabezas Adrián Vásquez-Mejía Martha Calderón Mary F. Reyes-Vega Yrene I. Blancas-Blas Anderson N. Soriano-Moreno María Vargas Karla Meza Jorge Uchuya Diego Castro-Garro Sergio Luque-Mamani Oswaldo G. E. Espinoza-Hurtado César V. Munayco |
| author_browse | Adrián Vásquez-Mejía Anderson N. Soriano-Moreno César V. Munayco Diego Castro-Garro Jorge Uchuya Karla Meza M. Gabriela Soto-Cabezas Martha Calderón Mary F. Reyes-Vega María Vargas Oswaldo G. E. Espinoza-Hurtado Sergio Luque-Mamani Yrene I. Blancas-Blas |
| author_facet | M. Gabriela Soto-Cabezas Adrián Vásquez-Mejía Martha Calderón Mary F. Reyes-Vega Yrene I. Blancas-Blas Anderson N. Soriano-Moreno María Vargas Karla Meza Jorge Uchuya Diego Castro-Garro Sergio Luque-Mamani Oswaldo G. E. Espinoza-Hurtado César V. Munayco |
| author_sort | M. Gabriela Soto-Cabezas |
| collection | Producción científica |
| description | In July 2022, mpox was declared an international public health emergency because of a surge in cases across Europe and America. This study assessed transmission dynamics and factors associated with hospitalization during the 2022 mpox outbreak in Peru. We performed a cross-sectional study using the Surveillance System of the National Center of Epidemiology, Prevention, and Disease Control (CDC-Peru) data. We estimated the basic reproduction number (R0), effective reproduction number (Rt), and the duration of the outbreak phases. We conducted mathematical modeling of the outbreak and estimated the serial interval. Additionally, we used Poisson regression with robust variance to identify hospitalization factors, using prevalence ratio. Between July and December 2022, 3,677 confirmed cases (96.3% male, mean age 32.6 years) were reported to the CDC-Peru. Of these, 75.0% were men who have sex with men (MSM), 55.6% had HIV infection, and 5.2% were hospitalized. The R0 was 2.37, with an exponential growth phase lasting 7 weeks, and Rt dropped to non-epidemic levels after 14 weeks. The incubation period and recovery period were estimated to be 6 days and 22 days, respectively. The serial interval was 9.3 days. HIV infection increased hospitalization risk. The 2022 mpox outbreak in Peru was characterized by primarily affecting a young MSM population, with a significant proportion being people living with HIV. Hospitalization was associated with HIV coinfection. This outbreak showed exponential growth during the first 7 weeks, followed by a marked deceleration of transmission. |
| format | Article |
| id | oai:cris.upeu.edu.pe:20.500.15037/570 |
| institution | UPeU |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025 |
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| spelling | oai:cris.upeu.edu.pe:20.500.15037/5702026-10-30T16:14:41ZTransmission Dynamics of Mpox in Peru During the 2022 OutbreakM. Gabriela Soto-CabezasAdrián Vásquez-MejíaMartha CalderónMary F. Reyes-VegaYrene I. Blancas-BlasAnderson N. Soriano-MorenoMaría VargasKarla MezaJorge UchuyaDiego Castro-GarroSergio Luque-MamaniOswaldo G. E. Espinoza-HurtadoCésar V. MunaycoOutbreakDemographyMedicineTransmission (telecommunications)Poisson regressionEpidemiologyPopulationCoinfectionPublic healthBasic reproduction numberEnvironmental healthInternal medicineVirologyHuman immunodeficiency virus (HIV)NursingElectrical engineeringEngineeringSociologyOutbreakDemographyMedicineTransmission (telecommunications)Poisson regressionEpidemiologyPopulationCoinfectionPublic healthBasic reproduction numberEnvironmental healthInternal medicineVirologyHuman immunodeficiency virus (HIV)AdolescentAdolescentAdolescentAdolescentAdultAdultAdultAdultCross-Sectional StudiesCross-Sectional StudiesCross-Sectional StudiesCross-Sectional StudiesDisease OutbreaksDisease OutbreaksDisease OutbreaksDisease OutbreaksFemaleFemaleFemaleFemaleHospitalization statistics & numerical dataHospitalization statistics & numerical dataHospitalization statistics & numerical dataHospitalization statistics & numerical dataHumansHumansHumansHumansMaleMaleMaleMaleMiddle AgedMiddle AgedMiddle AgedMiddle AgedPeru epidemiologyPeru epidemiologyPeru epidemiologyPeru epidemiologyHIV Infections epidemiologyHIV Infections epidemiologyHIV Infections epidemiologyHIV Infections epidemiologyHIV Infections transmissionHIV Infections transmissionHIV Infections transmissionHIV Infections transmissionHomosexuality, Male statistics & numerical dataHomosexuality, Male statistics & numerical dataHomosexuality, Male statistics & numerical dataHomosexuality, Male statistics & numerical dataBasic Reproduction NumberBasic Reproduction NumberBasic Reproduction NumberBasic Reproduction NumberYoung AdultYoung AdultYoung AdultYoung AdultLife Sciences Immunology and Microbiology Virology Poxvirus research and outbreaksHealth Sciences Medicine Epidemiology Virology and Viral DiseasesHealth Sciences Medicine Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health Zoonotic diseases and public healthIn July 2022, mpox was declared an international public health emergency because of a surge in cases across Europe and America. This study assessed transmission dynamics and factors associated with hospitalization during the 2022 mpox outbreak in Peru. We performed a cross-sectional study using the Surveillance System of the National Center of Epidemiology, Prevention, and Disease Control (CDC-Peru) data. We estimated the basic reproduction number (R0), effective reproduction number (Rt), and the duration of the outbreak phases. We conducted mathematical modeling of the outbreak and estimated the serial interval. Additionally, we used Poisson regression with robust variance to identify hospitalization factors, using prevalence ratio. Between July and December 2022, 3,677 confirmed cases (96.3% male, mean age 32.6 years) were reported to the CDC-Peru. Of these, 75.0% were men who have sex with men (MSM), 55.6% had HIV infection, and 5.2% were hospitalized. The R0 was 2.37, with an exponential growth phase lasting 7 weeks, and Rt dropped to non-epidemic levels after 14 weeks. The incubation period and recovery period were estimated to be 6 days and 22 days, respectively. The serial interval was 9.3 days. HIV infection increased hospitalization risk. The 2022 mpox outbreak in Peru was characterized by primarily affecting a young MSM population, with a significant proportion being people living with HIV. Hospitalization was associated with HIV coinfection. This outbreak showed exponential growth during the first 7 weeks, followed by a marked deceleration of transmission.Articlehttps://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/4039344210.4269/ajtmh.24-0361https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.15037/570W4410511986enAmerican Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene0002-96371476-16452025-05-202026-06-13T08:17:38Z2026-06-13T08:17:38Z |
| spellingShingle | Outbreak Demography Medicine Transmission (telecommunications) Poisson regression Epidemiology Population Coinfection Public health Basic reproduction number Environmental health Internal medicine Virology Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) Nursing Electrical engineering Engineering Sociology Outbreak Demography Medicine Transmission (telecommunications) Poisson regression Epidemiology Population Coinfection Public health Basic reproduction number Environmental health Internal medicine Virology Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) Adolescent Adolescent Adolescent Adolescent Adult Adult Adult Adult Cross-Sectional Studies Cross-Sectional Studies Cross-Sectional Studies Cross-Sectional Studies Disease Outbreaks Disease Outbreaks Disease Outbreaks Disease Outbreaks Female Female Female Female Hospitalization statistics & numerical data Hospitalization statistics & numerical data Hospitalization statistics & numerical data Hospitalization statistics & numerical data Humans Humans Humans Humans Male Male Male Male Middle Aged Middle Aged Middle Aged Middle Aged Peru epidemiology Peru epidemiology Peru epidemiology Peru epidemiology HIV Infections epidemiology HIV Infections epidemiology HIV Infections epidemiology HIV Infections epidemiology HIV Infections transmission HIV Infections transmission HIV Infections transmission HIV Infections transmission Homosexuality, Male statistics & numerical data Homosexuality, Male statistics & numerical data Homosexuality, Male statistics & numerical data Homosexuality, Male statistics & numerical data Basic Reproduction Number Basic Reproduction Number Basic Reproduction Number Basic Reproduction Number Young Adult Young Adult Young Adult Young Adult Life Sciences Immunology and Microbiology Virology Poxvirus research and outbreaks Health Sciences Medicine Epidemiology Virology and Viral Diseases Health Sciences Medicine Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health Zoonotic diseases and public health M. Gabriela Soto-Cabezas Adrián Vásquez-Mejía Martha Calderón Mary F. Reyes-Vega Yrene I. Blancas-Blas Anderson N. Soriano-Moreno María Vargas Karla Meza Jorge Uchuya Diego Castro-Garro Sergio Luque-Mamani Oswaldo G. E. Espinoza-Hurtado César V. Munayco Transmission Dynamics of Mpox in Peru During the 2022 Outbreak |
| title | Transmission Dynamics of Mpox in Peru During the 2022 Outbreak |
| title_full | Transmission Dynamics of Mpox in Peru During the 2022 Outbreak |
| title_fullStr | Transmission Dynamics of Mpox in Peru During the 2022 Outbreak |
| title_full_unstemmed | Transmission Dynamics of Mpox in Peru During the 2022 Outbreak |
| title_short | Transmission Dynamics of Mpox in Peru During the 2022 Outbreak |
| title_sort | transmission dynamics of mpox in peru during the 2022 outbreak |
| topic | Outbreak Demography Medicine Transmission (telecommunications) Poisson regression Epidemiology Population Coinfection Public health Basic reproduction number Environmental health Internal medicine Virology Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) Nursing Electrical engineering Engineering Sociology Outbreak Demography Medicine Transmission (telecommunications) Poisson regression Epidemiology Population Coinfection Public health Basic reproduction number Environmental health Internal medicine Virology Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) Adolescent Adolescent Adolescent Adolescent Adult Adult Adult Adult Cross-Sectional Studies Cross-Sectional Studies Cross-Sectional Studies Cross-Sectional Studies Disease Outbreaks Disease Outbreaks Disease Outbreaks Disease Outbreaks Female Female Female Female Hospitalization statistics & numerical data Hospitalization statistics & numerical data Hospitalization statistics & numerical data Hospitalization statistics & numerical data Humans Humans Humans Humans Male Male Male Male Middle Aged Middle Aged Middle Aged Middle Aged Peru epidemiology Peru epidemiology Peru epidemiology Peru epidemiology HIV Infections epidemiology HIV Infections epidemiology HIV Infections epidemiology HIV Infections epidemiology HIV Infections transmission HIV Infections transmission HIV Infections transmission HIV Infections transmission Homosexuality, Male statistics & numerical data Homosexuality, Male statistics & numerical data Homosexuality, Male statistics & numerical data Homosexuality, Male statistics & numerical data Basic Reproduction Number Basic Reproduction Number Basic Reproduction Number Basic Reproduction Number Young Adult Young Adult Young Adult Young Adult Life Sciences Immunology and Microbiology Virology Poxvirus research and outbreaks Health Sciences Medicine Epidemiology Virology and Viral Diseases Health Sciences Medicine Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health Zoonotic diseases and public health |
| topic_facet | Outbreak Demography Medicine Transmission (telecommunications) Poisson regression Epidemiology Population Coinfection Public health Basic reproduction number Environmental health Internal medicine Virology Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) Nursing Electrical engineering Engineering Sociology Outbreak Demography Medicine Transmission (telecommunications) Poisson regression Epidemiology Population Coinfection Public health Basic reproduction number Environmental health Internal medicine Virology Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) Adolescent Adolescent Adolescent Adolescent Adult Adult Adult Adult Cross-Sectional Studies Cross-Sectional Studies Cross-Sectional Studies Cross-Sectional Studies Disease Outbreaks Disease Outbreaks Disease Outbreaks Disease Outbreaks Female Female Female Female Hospitalization statistics & numerical data Hospitalization statistics & numerical data Hospitalization statistics & numerical data Hospitalization statistics & numerical data Humans Humans Humans Humans Male Male Male Male Middle Aged Middle Aged Middle Aged Middle Aged Peru epidemiology Peru epidemiology Peru epidemiology Peru epidemiology HIV Infections epidemiology HIV Infections epidemiology HIV Infections epidemiology HIV Infections epidemiology HIV Infections transmission HIV Infections transmission HIV Infections transmission HIV Infections transmission Homosexuality, Male statistics & numerical data Homosexuality, Male statistics & numerical data Homosexuality, Male statistics & numerical data Homosexuality, Male statistics & numerical data Basic Reproduction Number Basic Reproduction Number Basic Reproduction Number Basic Reproduction Number Young Adult Young Adult Young Adult Young Adult Life Sciences Immunology and Microbiology Virology Poxvirus research and outbreaks Health Sciences Medicine Epidemiology Virology and Viral Diseases Health Sciences Medicine Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health Zoonotic diseases and public health |
| url | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40393442 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.15037/570 |
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