Statistical modeling approach for PM10 prediction before and during confinement by COVID-19 in South Lima, Perú

A total of 188,859 meteorological-PM[Formula: see text] data validated before (2019) and during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020) were used. In order to predict PM[Formula: see text] in two districts of South Lima in Peru, hourly, daily, monthly and seasonal variations of the data were analyzed. Principa...

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Autores principales: Cabello-Torres, Rita Jaqueline, Ponce Estela, Manuel Angel, Sánchez-Ccoyllo, Odón, Romero-Cabello, Edison Alessandro, García Ávila, Fausto Fernando, Castañeda-Olivera, Carlos Alberto, Valdiviezo-Gonzales, Lorgio, Quispe Eulogio, Carlos Enrique, Huaman de la Cruz, Alex Ruben, López Gonzales, Javier Linkolk
Formato: Artículo
Lenguaje:inglés
Publicado: 2022
Materias:
Environmental sciences
Environmental social sciences
Acceso en línea:Ver en el sistema de origen
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Sumario:A total of 188,859 meteorological-PM[Formula: see text] data validated before (2019) and during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020) were used. In order to predict PM[Formula: see text] in two districts of South Lima in Peru, hourly, daily, monthly and seasonal variations of the data were analyzed. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and linear/nonlinear modeling were applied. The results showed the highest annual average PM[Formula: see text] for San Juan de Miraflores (SJM) (PM[Formula: see text]-SJM: 78.7 [Formula: see text]g/m[Formula: see text]) and the lowest in Santiago de Surco (SS) (PM[Formula: see text]-SS: 40.2 [Formula: see text]g/m[Formula: see text]). The PCA showed the influence of relative humidity (RH)-atmospheric pressure (AP)-temperature (T)/dew point (DP)-wind speed (WS)-wind direction (WD) combinations. Cool months with higher humidity and atmospheric instability decreased PM[Formula: see text] values in SJM and warm months increased it, favored by thermal inversion (TI). Dust resuspension, vehicular transport and stationary sources contributed more PM[Formula: see text] at peak times in the morning and evening. The Multiple linear regression (MLR) showed the best correlation (r = 0.6166), followed by the three-dimensional model LogAP-LogWD-LogPM[Formula: see text] (r = 0.5753); the RMSE-MLR (12.92) exceeded that found in the 3D models (RMSE [Formula: see text]) and the NSE-MLR criterion (0.3804) was acceptable. PM[Formula: see text] prediction was modeled using the algorithmic approach in any scenario to optimize urban management decisions in times of pandemic.

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