Impact of climate change on potato yield in the Peruvian Altiplano: An experimental study, with modeling in AquaCrop and generation of scenarios to 2050
Climate change is a critical threat to food security in high Andean regions, where potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is a strategic crop. In the Peruvian Altiplano, projected increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation heighten the vulnerability of rainfed farming systems. In this context, s...
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| Formato: | Artículo |
| Lenguaje: | inglés |
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2026
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| author | Wilfredo Julián Yzarra-Tito Sthefany Tisnado Delia Acuña Alan Llacza Gerardo Jácome Bernandino Tapia |
| author_browse | Alan Llacza Bernandino Tapia Delia Acuña Gerardo Jácome Sthefany Tisnado Wilfredo Julián Yzarra-Tito |
| author_facet | Wilfredo Julián Yzarra-Tito Sthefany Tisnado Delia Acuña Alan Llacza Gerardo Jácome Bernandino Tapia |
| author_sort | Wilfredo Julián Yzarra-Tito |
| collection | Producción científica |
| description | Climate change is a critical threat to food security in high Andean regions, where potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is a strategic crop. In the Peruvian Altiplano, projected increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation heighten the vulnerability of rainfed farming systems. In this context, simulation models are essential to anticipate impacts and design adaptation strategies. This study evaluated the effects of climate change on the yield of three potato varieties (Imilla Blanca, Imilla Negra, and Andina) in Taraco and Juliaca, using the AquaCrop model calibrated and validated with experimental field data collected between 2018 and 2021. Trials were conducted under a randomized complete block design, with three sowing dates. Calibration employed phenological, biomass, and yield data, assessed through statistical indicators (r, RMSE, d, and EF), showing robust performance. With the validated model, yield projections were simulated up to 2050 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in both rainfed and irrigated conditions. Results indicated significant reductions in Taraco, especially under rainfed conditions and early sowing dates, while in Juliaca yield increases were projected under irrigation, albeit with high variability among models. The Andina variety exhibited greater resilience to water stress, whereas Imilla Negra was the most vulnerable under rainfed conditions. These findings emphasize that irrigation access, the selection of resilient varieties, and adjustments in sowing calendars are key strategies to mitigate impacts and strengthen food security in the Peruvian Altiplano. |
| format | Article |
| id | openalex:W7161053683 |
| institution | UPeU |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| publishDateRange | 2026 |
| publishDateSort | 2026 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | openalex:W7161053683Impact of climate change on potato yield in the Peruvian Altiplano: An experimental study, with modeling in AquaCrop and generation of scenarios to 2050Wilfredo Julián Yzarra-TitoSthefany TisnadoDelia AcuñaAlan LlaczaGerardo JácomeBernandino Tapiaclimate change impactspotato yieldpotatoPeruvian AltiplanoAquaCrop modelcrop growth simulationRCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenariosrainfed agricultureirrigated agriculturesowing datepotato varietieswater stressfood securityclimate change adaptationJuliacaClimate change impacts on agricultureAgricultural Productivity and Crop ImprovementGenetics and Plant BreedingClimate change is a critical threat to food security in high Andean regions, where potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) is a strategic crop. In the Peruvian Altiplano, projected increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation heighten the vulnerability of rainfed farming systems. In this context, simulation models are essential to anticipate impacts and design adaptation strategies. This study evaluated the effects of climate change on the yield of three potato varieties (Imilla Blanca, Imilla Negra, and Andina) in Taraco and Juliaca, using the AquaCrop model calibrated and validated with experimental field data collected between 2018 and 2021. Trials were conducted under a randomized complete block design, with three sowing dates. Calibration employed phenological, biomass, and yield data, assessed through statistical indicators (r, RMSE, d, and EF), showing robust performance. With the validated model, yield projections were simulated up to 2050 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in both rainfed and irrigated conditions. Results indicated significant reductions in Taraco, especially under rainfed conditions and early sowing dates, while in Juliaca yield increases were projected under irrigation, albeit with high variability among models. The Andina variety exhibited greater resilience to water stress, whereas Imilla Negra was the most vulnerable under rainfed conditions. These findings emphasize that irrigation access, the selection of resilient varieties, and adjustments in sowing calendars are key strategies to mitigate impacts and strengthen food security in the Peruvian Altiplano.Articlehttps://doi.org/10.17268/sci.agropecu.2026.038https://revistas.unitru.edu.pe/index.php/scientiaagrop/article/download/7571/7561W7161053683enScientia Agropecuaria2077-99172306-67412026-05-13 |
| spellingShingle | climate change impacts potato yield potato Peruvian Altiplano AquaCrop model crop growth simulation RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios rainfed agriculture irrigated agriculture sowing date potato varieties water stress food security climate change adaptation Juliaca Climate change impacts on agriculture Agricultural Productivity and Crop Improvement Genetics and Plant Breeding Wilfredo Julián Yzarra-Tito Sthefany Tisnado Delia Acuña Alan Llacza Gerardo Jácome Bernandino Tapia Impact of climate change on potato yield in the Peruvian Altiplano: An experimental study, with modeling in AquaCrop and generation of scenarios to 2050 |
| title | Impact of climate change on potato yield in the Peruvian Altiplano: An experimental study, with modeling in AquaCrop and generation of scenarios to 2050 |
| title_full | Impact of climate change on potato yield in the Peruvian Altiplano: An experimental study, with modeling in AquaCrop and generation of scenarios to 2050 |
| title_fullStr | Impact of climate change on potato yield in the Peruvian Altiplano: An experimental study, with modeling in AquaCrop and generation of scenarios to 2050 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of climate change on potato yield in the Peruvian Altiplano: An experimental study, with modeling in AquaCrop and generation of scenarios to 2050 |
| title_short | Impact of climate change on potato yield in the Peruvian Altiplano: An experimental study, with modeling in AquaCrop and generation of scenarios to 2050 |
| title_sort | impact of climate change on potato yield in the peruvian altiplano an experimental study with modeling in aquacrop and generation of scenarios to 2050 |
| topic | climate change impacts potato yield potato Peruvian Altiplano AquaCrop model crop growth simulation RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios rainfed agriculture irrigated agriculture sowing date potato varieties water stress food security climate change adaptation Juliaca Climate change impacts on agriculture Agricultural Productivity and Crop Improvement Genetics and Plant Breeding |
| topic_facet | climate change impacts potato yield potato Peruvian Altiplano AquaCrop model crop growth simulation RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios rainfed agriculture irrigated agriculture sowing date potato varieties water stress food security climate change adaptation Juliaca Climate change impacts on agriculture Agricultural Productivity and Crop Improvement Genetics and Plant Breeding |
| url | https://doi.org/10.17268/sci.agropecu.2026.038 https://revistas.unitru.edu.pe/index.php/scientiaagrop/article/download/7571/7561 |
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