Day-Ahead Electricity Demand Forecasting Using a Novel Decomposition Combination Method
In the present liberalized energy markets, electricity demand forecasting is critical for planning of generation capacity and required resources. An accurate and efficient electricity demand forecast can reduce the risk of power outages and excessive power generation. Avoiding blackouts is crucial f...
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2023
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| author | Iftikhar, Hasnain Turpo Chaparro, Josue Edison Canas Rodrigues, Paulo López Gonzales, Javier Linkolk |
| author_browse | Canas Rodrigues, Paulo Iftikhar, Hasnain López Gonzales, Javier Linkolk Turpo Chaparro, Josue Edison |
| author_facet | Iftikhar, Hasnain Turpo Chaparro, Josue Edison Canas Rodrigues, Paulo López Gonzales, Javier Linkolk |
| author_sort | Iftikhar, Hasnain |
| collection | Producción científica |
| description | In the present liberalized energy markets, electricity demand forecasting is critical for planning of generation capacity and required resources. An accurate and efficient electricity demand forecast can reduce the risk of power outages and excessive power generation. Avoiding blackouts is crucial for economic growth, and electricity is an essential energy source for industry. Considering these facts, this study presents a detailed analysis of the forecast of hourly electricity demand by comparing novel decomposition methods with several univariate and multivariate time series models. To that end, we use the three proposed decomposition methods to divide the electricity demand time series into the following subseries: a long-run linear trend, a seasonal trend, and a stochastic trend. Next, each subseries is forecast using all conceivable combinations of univariate and multivariate time series models. Finally, the multiple forecasting models are immediately integrated to provide a final one-day-ahead electricity demand forecast. The presented modeling and forecasting technique is implemented for the Nord Pool electricity market’s hourly electricity demand. Three accuracy indicators, a statistical test, and a graphical analysis are used to assess the performance of the proposed decomposition combination forecasting technique. Hence, the forecasting results demonstrate the efficiency and precision of the proposed decomposition combination forecasting technique. In addition, the final best combination model within the proposed forecasting framework is comparatively better than the best models proposed in the literature and standard benchmark models. Finally, we suggest that the decomposition combination forecasting approach developed in this study be employed to handle additional complicated power market forecasting challenges. |
| format | Article |
| id | oai:cris.upeu.edu.pe:20.500.15037/426 |
| institution | UPeU |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateRange | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oai:cris.upeu.edu.pe:20.500.15037/4262026-10-30T16:14:37ZDay-Ahead Electricity Demand Forecasting Using a Novel Decomposition Combination MethodIftikhar, HasnainTurpo Chaparro, Josue EdisonCanas Rodrigues, PauloLópez Gonzales, Javier LinkolkNord Pool electricity marketday-ahead electricity demand forecastingdecomposition combination methodunivariate and multivariate times series modelsIn the present liberalized energy markets, electricity demand forecasting is critical for planning of generation capacity and required resources. An accurate and efficient electricity demand forecast can reduce the risk of power outages and excessive power generation. Avoiding blackouts is crucial for economic growth, and electricity is an essential energy source for industry. Considering these facts, this study presents a detailed analysis of the forecast of hourly electricity demand by comparing novel decomposition methods with several univariate and multivariate time series models. To that end, we use the three proposed decomposition methods to divide the electricity demand time series into the following subseries: a long-run linear trend, a seasonal trend, and a stochastic trend. Next, each subseries is forecast using all conceivable combinations of univariate and multivariate time series models. Finally, the multiple forecasting models are immediately integrated to provide a final one-day-ahead electricity demand forecast. The presented modeling and forecasting technique is implemented for the Nord Pool electricity market’s hourly electricity demand. Three accuracy indicators, a statistical test, and a graphical analysis are used to assess the performance of the proposed decomposition combination forecasting technique. Hence, the forecasting results demonstrate the efficiency and precision of the proposed decomposition combination forecasting technique. In addition, the final best combination model within the proposed forecasting framework is comparatively better than the best models proposed in the literature and standard benchmark models. Finally, we suggest that the decomposition combination forecasting approach developed in this study be employed to handle additional complicated power market forecasting challenges.Articlehttps://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/18/6675/pdf?version=1695024789https://doi.org/10.3390/en1618667510.3390/en16186675https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.15037/426W4386833194enEnergies1996-10732023-09-182026-06-13T08:13:20Z2026-06-13T08:13:20Z |
| spellingShingle | Nord Pool electricity market day-ahead electricity demand forecasting decomposition combination method univariate and multivariate times series models Iftikhar, Hasnain Turpo Chaparro, Josue Edison Canas Rodrigues, Paulo López Gonzales, Javier Linkolk Day-Ahead Electricity Demand Forecasting Using a Novel Decomposition Combination Method |
| title | Day-Ahead Electricity Demand Forecasting Using a Novel Decomposition Combination Method |
| title_full | Day-Ahead Electricity Demand Forecasting Using a Novel Decomposition Combination Method |
| title_fullStr | Day-Ahead Electricity Demand Forecasting Using a Novel Decomposition Combination Method |
| title_full_unstemmed | Day-Ahead Electricity Demand Forecasting Using a Novel Decomposition Combination Method |
| title_short | Day-Ahead Electricity Demand Forecasting Using a Novel Decomposition Combination Method |
| title_sort | day ahead electricity demand forecasting using a novel decomposition combination method |
| topic | Nord Pool electricity market day-ahead electricity demand forecasting decomposition combination method univariate and multivariate times series models |
| topic_facet | Nord Pool electricity market day-ahead electricity demand forecasting decomposition combination method univariate and multivariate times series models |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/18/6675/pdf?version=1695024789 https://doi.org/10.3390/en16186675 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.15037/426 |
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