Temperature frequency and mortality: Assessing adaptation to local temperature
Assessing the association between temperature frequency and mortality can provide insights into human adaptation to local ambient temperatures. We collected daily time-series data on mortality and temperature from 757 locations in 47 countries/regions during 1979-2020. We used a two-stage time serie...
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2024
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| author | Yao Wu Bo Wen Antonio Gasparrini Ben Armstrong Francesco Sera Éric Lavigne Shanshan Li Yuming Guo Ala Overcenco Aleš Urban Alexandra Schneider Alireza Entezari Ana María Vicedo-Cabrera Antonella Zanobetti Antonis Analitis Ariana Zeka Aurelio Tobı́as Baltazar Nunes Barrak Alahmad Bertil Forsberg Carmen Íñiguez Caroline Ameling César De la Cruz Valencia Danny Houthuijs Do Van Dung Dominic Royé Ene Indermitte Fatemeh Mayvaneh Fiorella Acquaotta Francesca de’Donato Gabriel Carrasco‐Escobar Haidong Kan Hanne Krage Carlsen Hans Orru Ho Kim Iulian‐Horia Holobâcă Jan Kyselý Joana Madureira Joel Schwartz Jouni J. K. Jaakkola Klea Katsouyanni Magali Hurtado‐Díaz Martina S. Ragettli Masahiro Hashizume Mathilde Pascal Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho Nicolás Valdés Ortega Niilo Ryti Noah Scovronick Paola Michelozzi Patricia Matus Correa Patrick Goodman Paulo Hilário Nascimento Saldiva Raanan Raz Rosana Abrutzky Samuel Osorio Shih‐Chun Pan Shilpa Rao Shilu Tong Souzana Achilleos Trần Ngọc Đăng Valentina Colistro Veronika Huber Whanhee Lee Xerxes Seposo Yasushi Honda Yoonhee Kim Yue Leon Guo Shanshan Li Yuming Guo |
| author_browse | Ala Overcenco Alexandra Schneider Aleš Urban Alireza Entezari Ana María Vicedo-Cabrera Antonella Zanobetti Antonio Gasparrini Antonis Analitis Ariana Zeka Aurelio Tobı́as Baltazar Nunes Barrak Alahmad Ben Armstrong Bertil Forsberg Bo Wen Carmen Íñiguez Caroline Ameling César De la Cruz Valencia Danny Houthuijs Do Van Dung Dominic Royé Ene Indermitte Fatemeh Mayvaneh Fiorella Acquaotta Francesca de’Donato Francesco Sera Gabriel Carrasco‐Escobar Haidong Kan Hanne Krage Carlsen Hans Orru Ho Kim Iulian‐Horia Holobâcă Jan Kyselý Joana Madureira Joel Schwartz Jouni J. K. Jaakkola Klea Katsouyanni Magali Hurtado‐Díaz Martina S. Ragettli Masahiro Hashizume Mathilde Pascal Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho Nicolás Valdés Ortega Niilo Ryti Noah Scovronick Paola Michelozzi Patricia Matus Correa Patrick Goodman Paulo Hilário Nascimento Saldiva Raanan Raz Rosana Abrutzky Samuel Osorio Shanshan Li Shih‐Chun Pan Shilpa Rao Shilu Tong Souzana Achilleos Trần Ngọc Đăng Valentina Colistro Veronika Huber Whanhee Lee Xerxes Seposo Yao Wu Yasushi Honda Yoonhee Kim Yue Leon Guo Yuming Guo Éric Lavigne |
| author_facet | Yao Wu Bo Wen Antonio Gasparrini Ben Armstrong Francesco Sera Éric Lavigne Shanshan Li Yuming Guo Ala Overcenco Aleš Urban Alexandra Schneider Alireza Entezari Ana María Vicedo-Cabrera Antonella Zanobetti Antonis Analitis Ariana Zeka Aurelio Tobı́as Baltazar Nunes Barrak Alahmad Bertil Forsberg Carmen Íñiguez Caroline Ameling César De la Cruz Valencia Danny Houthuijs Do Van Dung Dominic Royé Ene Indermitte Fatemeh Mayvaneh Fiorella Acquaotta Francesca de’Donato Gabriel Carrasco‐Escobar Haidong Kan Hanne Krage Carlsen Hans Orru Ho Kim Iulian‐Horia Holobâcă Jan Kyselý Joana Madureira Joel Schwartz Jouni J. K. Jaakkola Klea Katsouyanni Magali Hurtado‐Díaz Martina S. Ragettli Masahiro Hashizume Mathilde Pascal Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho Nicolás Valdés Ortega Niilo Ryti Noah Scovronick Paola Michelozzi Patricia Matus Correa Patrick Goodman Paulo Hilário Nascimento Saldiva Raanan Raz Rosana Abrutzky Samuel Osorio Shih‐Chun Pan Shilpa Rao Shilu Tong Souzana Achilleos Trần Ngọc Đăng Valentina Colistro Veronika Huber Whanhee Lee Xerxes Seposo Yasushi Honda Yoonhee Kim Yue Leon Guo Shanshan Li Yuming Guo |
| author_sort | Yao Wu |
| collection | Producción científica |
| description | Assessing the association between temperature frequency and mortality can provide insights into human adaptation to local ambient temperatures. We collected daily time-series data on mortality and temperature from 757 locations in 47 countries/regions during 1979-2020. We used a two-stage time series design to assess the association between temperature frequency and all-cause mortality. The results were pooled at the national, regional, and global levels. We observed a consistent decrease in the risk of mortality as the normalized frequency of temperature increases across the globe. The average increase in mortality risk comparing the 10th to 100th percentile of normalized frequency was 13.03% (95% CI: 12.17-13.91), with substantial regional differences (from 4.56% in Australia and New Zealand to 33.06% in South Europe). The highest increase in mortality was observed for high-income countries (13.58%, 95% CI: 12.56-14.61), followed by lower-middle-income countries (12.34%, 95% CI: 9.27-15.51). This study observed a declining risk of mortality associated with higher temperature frequency. Our findings suggest that populations can adapt to their local climate with frequent exposure, with the adapting ability varying geographically due to differences in climatic and socioeconomic characteristics. |
| format | Article |
| id | oai:cris.upeu.edu.pe:20.500.15037/1181 |
| institution | UPeU |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateRange | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oai:cris.upeu.edu.pe:20.500.15037/11812026-10-30T16:15:19ZTemperature frequency and mortality: Assessing adaptation to local temperatureYao WuBo WenAntonio GasparriniBen ArmstrongFrancesco SeraÉric LavigneShanshan LiYuming GuoAla OvercencoAleš UrbanAlexandra SchneiderAlireza EntezariAna María Vicedo-CabreraAntonella ZanobettiAntonis AnalitisAriana ZekaAurelio Tobı́asBaltazar NunesBarrak AlahmadBertil ForsbergCarmen ÍñiguezCaroline AmelingCésar De la Cruz ValenciaDanny HouthuijsDo Van DungDominic RoyéEne IndermitteFatemeh MayvanehFiorella AcquaottaFrancesca de’DonatoGabriel Carrasco‐EscobarHaidong KanHanne Krage CarlsenHans OrruHo KimIulian‐Horia HolobâcăJan KyselýJoana MadureiraJoel SchwartzJouni J. K. JaakkolaKlea KatsouyanniMagali Hurtado‐DíazMartina S. RagettliMasahiro HashizumeMathilde PascalMicheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio CoêlhoNicolás Valdés OrtegaNiilo RytiNoah ScovronickPaola MichelozziPatricia Matus CorreaPatrick GoodmanPaulo Hilário Nascimento SaldivaRaanan RazRosana AbrutzkySamuel OsorioShih‐Chun PanShilpa RaoShilu TongSouzana AchilleosTrần Ngọc ĐăngValentina ColistroVeronika HuberWhanhee LeeXerxes SeposoYasushi HondaYoonhee KimYue Leon GuoShanshan LiYuming GuoPercentileDemographyGeographySocioeconomic statusMortality rateClimate changeApparent temperatureEnvironmental sciencePopulationBiologyEcologyStatisticsMeteorologyMathematicsRelative humiditySociologyPercentileDemographyGeographySocioeconomic statusMortality rateClimate changeApparent temperatureEnvironmental sciencePopulationBiologyEcologyStatisticsMeteorologyMathematicsAcclimatization physiologyAcclimatization physiologyAcclimatization physiologyAustraliaAustraliaAustraliaClimateClimateClimateHot Temperature adverse effectsHot Temperature adverse effectsHot Temperature adverse effectsHumansHumansHumansMortality trendsMortality trendsMortality trendsNew ZealandNew ZealandNew ZealandTemperatureTemperatureTemperatureClimate ChangeClimate ChangeClimate ChangePhysical Sciences Environmental Science Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis Climate Change and Health ImpactsHealth Sciences Health Professions General Health Professions Global Health Care IssuesPhysical Sciences Environmental Science Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis Air Quality and Health ImpactsAssessing the association between temperature frequency and mortality can provide insights into human adaptation to local ambient temperatures. We collected daily time-series data on mortality and temperature from 757 locations in 47 countries/regions during 1979-2020. We used a two-stage time series design to assess the association between temperature frequency and all-cause mortality. The results were pooled at the national, regional, and global levels. We observed a consistent decrease in the risk of mortality as the normalized frequency of temperature increases across the globe. The average increase in mortality risk comparing the 10th to 100th percentile of normalized frequency was 13.03% (95% CI: 12.17-13.91), with substantial regional differences (from 4.56% in Australia and New Zealand to 33.06% in South Europe). The highest increase in mortality was observed for high-income countries (13.58%, 95% CI: 12.56-14.61), followed by lower-middle-income countries (12.34%, 95% CI: 9.27-15.51). This study observed a declining risk of mortality associated with higher temperature frequency. Our findings suggest that populations can adapt to their local climate with frequent exposure, with the adapting ability varying geographically due to differences in climatic and socioeconomic characteristics.Articlehttps://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38718673https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2024.10869110.1016/j.envint.2024.108691https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.15037/1181W4396554369enEnvironment International0160-41201873-67502024-05-012026-06-13T09:49:09Z2026-06-13T09:49:09Z |
| spellingShingle | Percentile Demography Geography Socioeconomic status Mortality rate Climate change Apparent temperature Environmental science Population Biology Ecology Statistics Meteorology Mathematics Relative humidity Sociology Percentile Demography Geography Socioeconomic status Mortality rate Climate change Apparent temperature Environmental science Population Biology Ecology Statistics Meteorology Mathematics Acclimatization physiology Acclimatization physiology Acclimatization physiology Australia Australia Australia Climate Climate Climate Hot Temperature adverse effects Hot Temperature adverse effects Hot Temperature adverse effects Humans Humans Humans Mortality trends Mortality trends Mortality trends New Zealand New Zealand New Zealand Temperature Temperature Temperature Climate Change Climate Change Climate Change Physical Sciences Environmental Science Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis Climate Change and Health Impacts Health Sciences Health Professions General Health Professions Global Health Care Issues Physical Sciences Environmental Science Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis Air Quality and Health Impacts Yao Wu Bo Wen Antonio Gasparrini Ben Armstrong Francesco Sera Éric Lavigne Shanshan Li Yuming Guo Ala Overcenco Aleš Urban Alexandra Schneider Alireza Entezari Ana María Vicedo-Cabrera Antonella Zanobetti Antonis Analitis Ariana Zeka Aurelio Tobı́as Baltazar Nunes Barrak Alahmad Bertil Forsberg Carmen Íñiguez Caroline Ameling César De la Cruz Valencia Danny Houthuijs Do Van Dung Dominic Royé Ene Indermitte Fatemeh Mayvaneh Fiorella Acquaotta Francesca de’Donato Gabriel Carrasco‐Escobar Haidong Kan Hanne Krage Carlsen Hans Orru Ho Kim Iulian‐Horia Holobâcă Jan Kyselý Joana Madureira Joel Schwartz Jouni J. K. Jaakkola Klea Katsouyanni Magali Hurtado‐Díaz Martina S. Ragettli Masahiro Hashizume Mathilde Pascal Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho Nicolás Valdés Ortega Niilo Ryti Noah Scovronick Paola Michelozzi Patricia Matus Correa Patrick Goodman Paulo Hilário Nascimento Saldiva Raanan Raz Rosana Abrutzky Samuel Osorio Shih‐Chun Pan Shilpa Rao Shilu Tong Souzana Achilleos Trần Ngọc Đăng Valentina Colistro Veronika Huber Whanhee Lee Xerxes Seposo Yasushi Honda Yoonhee Kim Yue Leon Guo Shanshan Li Yuming Guo Temperature frequency and mortality: Assessing adaptation to local temperature |
| title | Temperature frequency and mortality: Assessing adaptation to local temperature |
| title_full | Temperature frequency and mortality: Assessing adaptation to local temperature |
| title_fullStr | Temperature frequency and mortality: Assessing adaptation to local temperature |
| title_full_unstemmed | Temperature frequency and mortality: Assessing adaptation to local temperature |
| title_short | Temperature frequency and mortality: Assessing adaptation to local temperature |
| title_sort | temperature frequency and mortality assessing adaptation to local temperature |
| topic | Percentile Demography Geography Socioeconomic status Mortality rate Climate change Apparent temperature Environmental science Population Biology Ecology Statistics Meteorology Mathematics Relative humidity Sociology Percentile Demography Geography Socioeconomic status Mortality rate Climate change Apparent temperature Environmental science Population Biology Ecology Statistics Meteorology Mathematics Acclimatization physiology Acclimatization physiology Acclimatization physiology Australia Australia Australia Climate Climate Climate Hot Temperature adverse effects Hot Temperature adverse effects Hot Temperature adverse effects Humans Humans Humans Mortality trends Mortality trends Mortality trends New Zealand New Zealand New Zealand Temperature Temperature Temperature Climate Change Climate Change Climate Change Physical Sciences Environmental Science Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis Climate Change and Health Impacts Health Sciences Health Professions General Health Professions Global Health Care Issues Physical Sciences Environmental Science Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis Air Quality and Health Impacts |
| topic_facet | Percentile Demography Geography Socioeconomic status Mortality rate Climate change Apparent temperature Environmental science Population Biology Ecology Statistics Meteorology Mathematics Relative humidity Sociology Percentile Demography Geography Socioeconomic status Mortality rate Climate change Apparent temperature Environmental science Population Biology Ecology Statistics Meteorology Mathematics Acclimatization physiology Acclimatization physiology Acclimatization physiology Australia Australia Australia Climate Climate Climate Hot Temperature adverse effects Hot Temperature adverse effects Hot Temperature adverse effects Humans Humans Humans Mortality trends Mortality trends Mortality trends New Zealand New Zealand New Zealand Temperature Temperature Temperature Climate Change Climate Change Climate Change Physical Sciences Environmental Science Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis Climate Change and Health Impacts Health Sciences Health Professions General Health Professions Global Health Care Issues Physical Sciences Environmental Science Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis Air Quality and Health Impacts |
| url | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38718673 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2024.108691 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.15037/1181 |
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