Rainfall events and daily mortality across 645 global locations: two stage time series analysis
OBJECTIVE: To examine the associations between characteristics of daily rainfall (intensity, duration, and frequency) and all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. DESIGN: Two stage time series analysis. SETTING: 645 locations across 34 countries or regions. POPULATION: Daily mortality d...
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2024
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| author | Cheng He Susanne Breitner-Busch Veronika Huber Kai Chen Siqi Zhang Antonio Gasparrini Michelle L. Bell Haidong Kan Dominic Royé Ben Armstrong Joel Schwartz Francesco Sera Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera Yasushi Honda Jouni J K Jaakkola Niilo Ryti Jan Kyselý Yuming Guo Shilu Tong Francesca de’Donato Paola Michelozzi Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva Eric Lavigne Hans Orru Ene Indermitte Mathilde Pascal Patrick Goodman Ariana Zeka Yoonhee Kim Magali Hurtado‐Díaz Eunice Elizabeth Félix Arellano Ala Overcenco Jochem O. Klompmaker Shilpa Rao Alfonso Diz-Lois Palomares Gabriel Carrasco‐Escobar Xerxes Seposo Susana das Neves Pereira da Silva Joana Madureira Iulian‐Horia Holobâcă Noah Scovronick Fiorella Acquaotta Ho Kim Whanhee Lee Masahiro Hashizume Aurelio Tobı́as Carmen Íñiguez Bertil Forsberg Martina S. Ragettli Yue Leon Guo Shih‐Chun Pan Samuel Osorio Shanshan Li Antonella Zanobetti Trần Ngọc Đăng Do Van Dung Alexandra Schneider |
| author_browse | Ala Overcenco Alexandra Schneider Alfonso Diz-Lois Palomares Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera Antonella Zanobetti Antonio Gasparrini Ariana Zeka Aurelio Tobı́as Ben Armstrong Bertil Forsberg Carmen Íñiguez Cheng He Do Van Dung Dominic Royé Ene Indermitte Eric Lavigne Eunice Elizabeth Félix Arellano Fiorella Acquaotta Francesca de’Donato Francesco Sera Gabriel Carrasco‐Escobar Haidong Kan Hans Orru Ho Kim Iulian‐Horia Holobâcă Jan Kyselý Joana Madureira Jochem O. Klompmaker Joel Schwartz Jouni J K Jaakkola Kai Chen Magali Hurtado‐Díaz Martina S. Ragettli Masahiro Hashizume Mathilde Pascal Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho Michelle L. Bell Niilo Ryti Noah Scovronick Paola Michelozzi Patrick Goodman Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva Samuel Osorio Shanshan Li Shih‐Chun Pan Shilpa Rao Shilu Tong Siqi Zhang Susana das Neves Pereira da Silva Susanne Breitner-Busch Trần Ngọc Đăng Veronika Huber Whanhee Lee Xerxes Seposo Yasushi Honda Yoonhee Kim Yue Leon Guo Yuming Guo |
| author_facet | Cheng He Susanne Breitner-Busch Veronika Huber Kai Chen Siqi Zhang Antonio Gasparrini Michelle L. Bell Haidong Kan Dominic Royé Ben Armstrong Joel Schwartz Francesco Sera Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera Yasushi Honda Jouni J K Jaakkola Niilo Ryti Jan Kyselý Yuming Guo Shilu Tong Francesca de’Donato Paola Michelozzi Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva Eric Lavigne Hans Orru Ene Indermitte Mathilde Pascal Patrick Goodman Ariana Zeka Yoonhee Kim Magali Hurtado‐Díaz Eunice Elizabeth Félix Arellano Ala Overcenco Jochem O. Klompmaker Shilpa Rao Alfonso Diz-Lois Palomares Gabriel Carrasco‐Escobar Xerxes Seposo Susana das Neves Pereira da Silva Joana Madureira Iulian‐Horia Holobâcă Noah Scovronick Fiorella Acquaotta Ho Kim Whanhee Lee Masahiro Hashizume Aurelio Tobı́as Carmen Íñiguez Bertil Forsberg Martina S. Ragettli Yue Leon Guo Shih‐Chun Pan Samuel Osorio Shanshan Li Antonella Zanobetti Trần Ngọc Đăng Do Van Dung Alexandra Schneider |
| author_sort | Cheng He |
| collection | Producción científica |
| description | OBJECTIVE: To examine the associations between characteristics of daily rainfall (intensity, duration, and frequency) and all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. DESIGN: Two stage time series analysis. SETTING: 645 locations across 34 countries or regions. POPULATION: Daily mortality data, comprising a total of 109 954 744 all cause, 31 164 161 cardiovascular, and 11 817 278 respiratory deaths from 1980 to 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Association between daily mortality and rainfall events with return periods (the expected average time between occurrences of an extreme event of a certain magnitude) of one year, two years, and five years, with a 14 day lag period. A continuous relative intensity index was used to generate intensity-response curves to estimate mortality risks at a global scale. RESULTS: During the study period, a total of 50 913 rainfall events with a one year return period, 8362 events with a two year return period, and 3301 events with a five year return period were identified. A day of extreme rainfall with a five year return period was significantly associated with increased daily all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, with cumulative relative risks across 0-14 lag days of 1.08 (95% confidence interval 1.05 to 1.11), 1.05 (1.02 to 1.08), and 1.29 (1.19 to 1.39), respectively. Rainfall events with a two year return period were associated with respiratory mortality only, whereas no significant associations were found for events with a one year return period. Non-linear analysis revealed protective effects (relative risk <1) with moderate-heavy rainfall events, shifting to adverse effects (relative risk >1) with extreme intensities. Additionally, mortality risks from extreme rainfall events appeared to be modified by climate type, baseline variability in rainfall, and vegetation coverage, whereas the moderating effects of population density and income level were not significant. Locations with lower variability of baseline rainfall or scarce vegetation coverage showed higher risks. CONCLUSION: Daily rainfall intensity is associated with varying health effects, with extreme events linked to an increasing relative risk for all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. The observed associations varied with local climate and urban infrastructure. |
| format | Article |
| id | oai:cris.upeu.edu.pe:20.500.15037/1176 |
| institution | UPeU |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateRange | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oai:cris.upeu.edu.pe:20.500.15037/11762026-10-30T16:15:18ZRainfall events and daily mortality across 645 global locations: two stage time series analysisCheng HeSusanne Breitner-BuschVeronika HuberKai ChenSiqi ZhangAntonio GasparriniMichelle L. BellHaidong KanDominic RoyéBen ArmstrongJoel SchwartzFrancesco SeraAna Maria Vicedo-CabreraYasushi HondaJouni J K JaakkolaNiilo RytiJan KyselýYuming GuoShilu TongFrancesca de’DonatoPaola MichelozziMicheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio CoêlhoPaulo Hilario Nascimento SaldivaEric LavigneHans OrruEne IndermitteMathilde PascalPatrick GoodmanAriana ZekaYoonhee KimMagali Hurtado‐DíazEunice Elizabeth Félix ArellanoAla OvercencoJochem O. KlompmakerShilpa RaoAlfonso Diz-Lois PalomaresGabriel Carrasco‐EscobarXerxes SeposoSusana das Neves Pereira da SilvaJoana MadureiraIulian‐Horia HolobâcăNoah ScovronickFiorella AcquaottaHo KimWhanhee LeeMasahiro HashizumeAurelio Tobı́asCarmen ÍñiguezBertil ForsbergMartina S. RagettliYue Leon GuoShih‐Chun PanSamuel OsorioShanshan LiAntonella ZanobettiTrần Ngọc ĐăngDo Van DungAlexandra SchneiderSeries (stratigraphy)Stage (stratigraphy)Computer scienceTime seriesStatisticsMathematicsGeologyMachine learningPaleontologySeries (stratigraphy)Stage (stratigraphy)Computer scienceTime seriesStatisticsMathematicsGeologyMachine learningCardiovascular Diseases mortalityCardiovascular Diseases mortalityCardiovascular Diseases mortalityCardiovascular Diseases mortalityCardiovascular Diseases mortalityCardiovascular Diseases mortalityCause of Death trendsCause of Death trendsCause of Death trendsCause of Death trendsCause of Death trendsCause of Death trendsHumansHumansHumansHumansHumansHumansMortality trendsMortality trendsMortality trendsMortality trendsMortality trendsMortality trendsRainRainRainRainRainRainRespiratory Tract Diseases mortalityRespiratory Tract Diseases mortalityRespiratory Tract Diseases mortalityRespiratory Tract Diseases mortalityRespiratory Tract Diseases mortalityRespiratory Tract Diseases mortalityTime FactorsTime FactorsTime FactorsTime FactorsTime FactorsTime FactorsGlobal Health statistics & numerical dataGlobal Health statistics & numerical dataGlobal Health statistics & numerical dataGlobal Health statistics & numerical dataGlobal Health statistics & numerical dataGlobal Health statistics & numerical dataPhysical Sciences Environmental Science Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis Climate Change and Health ImpactsPhysical Sciences Environmental Science Global and Planetary Change Climate variability and modelsPhysical Sciences Environmental Science Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis Air Quality and Health ImpactsOBJECTIVE: To examine the associations between characteristics of daily rainfall (intensity, duration, and frequency) and all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. DESIGN: Two stage time series analysis. SETTING: 645 locations across 34 countries or regions. POPULATION: Daily mortality data, comprising a total of 109 954 744 all cause, 31 164 161 cardiovascular, and 11 817 278 respiratory deaths from 1980 to 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Association between daily mortality and rainfall events with return periods (the expected average time between occurrences of an extreme event of a certain magnitude) of one year, two years, and five years, with a 14 day lag period. A continuous relative intensity index was used to generate intensity-response curves to estimate mortality risks at a global scale. RESULTS: During the study period, a total of 50 913 rainfall events with a one year return period, 8362 events with a two year return period, and 3301 events with a five year return period were identified. A day of extreme rainfall with a five year return period was significantly associated with increased daily all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, with cumulative relative risks across 0-14 lag days of 1.08 (95% confidence interval 1.05 to 1.11), 1.05 (1.02 to 1.08), and 1.29 (1.19 to 1.39), respectively. Rainfall events with a two year return period were associated with respiratory mortality only, whereas no significant associations were found for events with a one year return period. Non-linear analysis revealed protective effects (relative risk <1) with moderate-heavy rainfall events, shifting to adverse effects (relative risk >1) with extreme intensities. Additionally, mortality risks from extreme rainfall events appeared to be modified by climate type, baseline variability in rainfall, and vegetation coverage, whereas the moderating effects of population density and income level were not significant. Locations with lower variability of baseline rainfall or scarce vegetation coverage showed higher risks. CONCLUSION: Daily rainfall intensity is associated with varying health effects, with extreme events linked to an increasing relative risk for all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. The observed associations varied with local climate and urban infrastructure.Articlehttps://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39384295https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/387/bmj-2024-080944.full.pdfhttps://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2024-08094410.1136/bmj-2024-080944https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.15037/1176W4403258614enBMJ1756-18332024-10-092026-06-13T09:48:51Z2026-06-13T09:48:51Z |
| spellingShingle | Series (stratigraphy) Stage (stratigraphy) Computer science Time series Statistics Mathematics Geology Machine learning Paleontology Series (stratigraphy) Stage (stratigraphy) Computer science Time series Statistics Mathematics Geology Machine learning Cardiovascular Diseases mortality Cardiovascular Diseases mortality Cardiovascular Diseases mortality Cardiovascular Diseases mortality Cardiovascular Diseases mortality Cardiovascular Diseases mortality Cause of Death trends Cause of Death trends Cause of Death trends Cause of Death trends Cause of Death trends Cause of Death trends Humans Humans Humans Humans Humans Humans Mortality trends Mortality trends Mortality trends Mortality trends Mortality trends Mortality trends Rain Rain Rain Rain Rain Rain Respiratory Tract Diseases mortality Respiratory Tract Diseases mortality Respiratory Tract Diseases mortality Respiratory Tract Diseases mortality Respiratory Tract Diseases mortality Respiratory Tract Diseases mortality Time Factors Time Factors Time Factors Time Factors Time Factors Time Factors Global Health statistics & numerical data Global Health statistics & numerical data Global Health statistics & numerical data Global Health statistics & numerical data Global Health statistics & numerical data Global Health statistics & numerical data Physical Sciences Environmental Science Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis Climate Change and Health Impacts Physical Sciences Environmental Science Global and Planetary Change Climate variability and models Physical Sciences Environmental Science Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis Air Quality and Health Impacts Cheng He Susanne Breitner-Busch Veronika Huber Kai Chen Siqi Zhang Antonio Gasparrini Michelle L. Bell Haidong Kan Dominic Royé Ben Armstrong Joel Schwartz Francesco Sera Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera Yasushi Honda Jouni J K Jaakkola Niilo Ryti Jan Kyselý Yuming Guo Shilu Tong Francesca de’Donato Paola Michelozzi Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva Eric Lavigne Hans Orru Ene Indermitte Mathilde Pascal Patrick Goodman Ariana Zeka Yoonhee Kim Magali Hurtado‐Díaz Eunice Elizabeth Félix Arellano Ala Overcenco Jochem O. Klompmaker Shilpa Rao Alfonso Diz-Lois Palomares Gabriel Carrasco‐Escobar Xerxes Seposo Susana das Neves Pereira da Silva Joana Madureira Iulian‐Horia Holobâcă Noah Scovronick Fiorella Acquaotta Ho Kim Whanhee Lee Masahiro Hashizume Aurelio Tobı́as Carmen Íñiguez Bertil Forsberg Martina S. Ragettli Yue Leon Guo Shih‐Chun Pan Samuel Osorio Shanshan Li Antonella Zanobetti Trần Ngọc Đăng Do Van Dung Alexandra Schneider Rainfall events and daily mortality across 645 global locations: two stage time series analysis |
| title | Rainfall events and daily mortality across 645 global locations: two stage time series analysis |
| title_full | Rainfall events and daily mortality across 645 global locations: two stage time series analysis |
| title_fullStr | Rainfall events and daily mortality across 645 global locations: two stage time series analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Rainfall events and daily mortality across 645 global locations: two stage time series analysis |
| title_short | Rainfall events and daily mortality across 645 global locations: two stage time series analysis |
| title_sort | rainfall events and daily mortality across 645 global locations two stage time series analysis |
| topic | Series (stratigraphy) Stage (stratigraphy) Computer science Time series Statistics Mathematics Geology Machine learning Paleontology Series (stratigraphy) Stage (stratigraphy) Computer science Time series Statistics Mathematics Geology Machine learning Cardiovascular Diseases mortality Cardiovascular Diseases mortality Cardiovascular Diseases mortality Cardiovascular Diseases mortality Cardiovascular Diseases mortality Cardiovascular Diseases mortality Cause of Death trends Cause of Death trends Cause of Death trends Cause of Death trends Cause of Death trends Cause of Death trends Humans Humans Humans Humans Humans Humans Mortality trends Mortality trends Mortality trends Mortality trends Mortality trends Mortality trends Rain Rain Rain Rain Rain Rain Respiratory Tract Diseases mortality Respiratory Tract Diseases mortality Respiratory Tract Diseases mortality Respiratory Tract Diseases mortality Respiratory Tract Diseases mortality Respiratory Tract Diseases mortality Time Factors Time Factors Time Factors Time Factors Time Factors Time Factors Global Health statistics & numerical data Global Health statistics & numerical data Global Health statistics & numerical data Global Health statistics & numerical data Global Health statistics & numerical data Global Health statistics & numerical data Physical Sciences Environmental Science Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis Climate Change and Health Impacts Physical Sciences Environmental Science Global and Planetary Change Climate variability and models Physical Sciences Environmental Science Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis Air Quality and Health Impacts |
| topic_facet | Series (stratigraphy) Stage (stratigraphy) Computer science Time series Statistics Mathematics Geology Machine learning Paleontology Series (stratigraphy) Stage (stratigraphy) Computer science Time series Statistics Mathematics Geology Machine learning Cardiovascular Diseases mortality Cardiovascular Diseases mortality Cardiovascular Diseases mortality Cardiovascular Diseases mortality Cardiovascular Diseases mortality Cardiovascular Diseases mortality Cause of Death trends Cause of Death trends Cause of Death trends Cause of Death trends Cause of Death trends Cause of Death trends Humans Humans Humans Humans Humans Humans Mortality trends Mortality trends Mortality trends Mortality trends Mortality trends Mortality trends Rain Rain Rain Rain Rain Rain Respiratory Tract Diseases mortality Respiratory Tract Diseases mortality Respiratory Tract Diseases mortality Respiratory Tract Diseases mortality Respiratory Tract Diseases mortality Respiratory Tract Diseases mortality Time Factors Time Factors Time Factors Time Factors Time Factors Time Factors Global Health statistics & numerical data Global Health statistics & numerical data Global Health statistics & numerical data Global Health statistics & numerical data Global Health statistics & numerical data Global Health statistics & numerical data Physical Sciences Environmental Science Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis Climate Change and Health Impacts Physical Sciences Environmental Science Global and Planetary Change Climate variability and models Physical Sciences Environmental Science Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis Air Quality and Health Impacts |
| url | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39384295 https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/387/bmj-2024-080944.full.pdf https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2024-080944 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.15037/1176 |
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