Meteorological factors, population immunity, and COVID-19 incidence: A global multi-city analysis
Objectives: While COVID-19 continues to challenge the world, meteorological variables are thought to impact COVID-19 transmission. Previous studies showed evidence of negative associations between high temperature and absolute humidity on COVID-19 transmission. Our research aims to fill the knowledg...
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2024
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| author | Denise Feurer Tim Riffe Maxi S. Kniffka Enrique Acosta Ben Armstrong Malcolm Mistry Rachel Lowe Dominic Royé Masahiro Hashizume Lina Madaniyazi Chris Fook Sheng Ng Aurelio Tobı́as Carmen Íñiguez Ana María Vicedo-Cabrera Martina S. Ragettli Éric Lavigne Patricia Matus Correa Nicolás Valdés Ortega Jan Kyselý Aleš Urban Hans Orru Ene Indermitte Marek Maasikmets Marco Dallavalle Alexandra Schneider Yasushi Honda Barrak Alahmad Antonella Zanobetti Joel Schwartz Gabriel Carrasco‐Escobar Iulian‐Horia Holobâcă Ho Kim Whanhee Lee Michelle L. Bell Noah Scovronick Fiorella Acquaotta Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho Magali Hurtado‐Díaz Eunice Elizabeth Félix Arellano Paola Michelozzi Massimo Stafoggia Francesca de’Donato Shilpa Rao Francesco Di Ruscio Xerxes Seposo Yuming Guo Shilu Tong Pierre Masselot Antonio Gasparrini Francesco Sera |
| author_browse | Alexandra Schneider Aleš Urban Ana María Vicedo-Cabrera Antonella Zanobetti Antonio Gasparrini Aurelio Tobı́as Barrak Alahmad Ben Armstrong Carmen Íñiguez Chris Fook Sheng Ng Denise Feurer Dominic Royé Ene Indermitte Enrique Acosta Eunice Elizabeth Félix Arellano Fiorella Acquaotta Francesca de’Donato Francesco Di Ruscio Francesco Sera Gabriel Carrasco‐Escobar Hans Orru Ho Kim Iulian‐Horia Holobâcă Jan Kyselý Joel Schwartz Lina Madaniyazi Magali Hurtado‐Díaz Malcolm Mistry Marco Dallavalle Marek Maasikmets Martina S. Ragettli Masahiro Hashizume Massimo Stafoggia Maxi S. Kniffka Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho Michelle L. Bell Nicolás Valdés Ortega Noah Scovronick Paola Michelozzi Patricia Matus Correa Pierre Masselot Rachel Lowe Shilpa Rao Shilu Tong Tim Riffe Whanhee Lee Xerxes Seposo Yasushi Honda Yuming Guo Éric Lavigne |
| author_facet | Denise Feurer Tim Riffe Maxi S. Kniffka Enrique Acosta Ben Armstrong Malcolm Mistry Rachel Lowe Dominic Royé Masahiro Hashizume Lina Madaniyazi Chris Fook Sheng Ng Aurelio Tobı́as Carmen Íñiguez Ana María Vicedo-Cabrera Martina S. Ragettli Éric Lavigne Patricia Matus Correa Nicolás Valdés Ortega Jan Kyselý Aleš Urban Hans Orru Ene Indermitte Marek Maasikmets Marco Dallavalle Alexandra Schneider Yasushi Honda Barrak Alahmad Antonella Zanobetti Joel Schwartz Gabriel Carrasco‐Escobar Iulian‐Horia Holobâcă Ho Kim Whanhee Lee Michelle L. Bell Noah Scovronick Fiorella Acquaotta Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho Magali Hurtado‐Díaz Eunice Elizabeth Félix Arellano Paola Michelozzi Massimo Stafoggia Francesca de’Donato Shilpa Rao Francesco Di Ruscio Xerxes Seposo Yuming Guo Shilu Tong Pierre Masselot Antonio Gasparrini Francesco Sera |
| author_sort | Denise Feurer |
| collection | Producción científica |
| description | Objectives: While COVID-19 continues to challenge the world, meteorological variables are thought to impact COVID-19 transmission. Previous studies showed evidence of negative associations between high temperature and absolute humidity on COVID-19 transmission. Our research aims to fill the knowledge gap on the modifying effect of vaccination rates and strains on the weather-COVID-19 association. Methods: Our study included COVID-19 data from 439 cities in 22 countries spanning 3 February 2020 - 31 August 2022 and meteorological variables (temperature, relative humidity, absolute humidity, solar radiation, and precipitation). We used a two-stage time-series design to assess the association between meteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence. For the exposure modeling, we used distributed lag nonlinear models with a lag of up to 14 days. Finally, we pooled the estimates using a random effect meta-analytic model and tested vaccination rates and dominant strains as possible effect modifiers. Results: Our results showed an association between temperature and absolute humidity on COVID-19 transmission. At 5 °C, the relative risk of COVID-19 incidence is 1.22-fold higher compared to a reference level at 17 °C. Correlated with temperature, we observed an inverse association for absolute humidity. We observed a tendency of increased risk on days without precipitation, but no association for relative humidity and solar radiation. No interaction between vaccination rates or strains on the weather-COVID-19 association was observed. Conclusions: This study strengthens previous evidence of a relationship of temperature and absolute humidity with COVID-19 incidence. Furthermore, no evidence was found that vaccinations and strains significantly modify the relationship between environmental factors and COVID-19 transmission. |
| format | Article |
| id | oai:cris.upeu.edu.pe:20.500.15037/1175 |
| institution | UPeU |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publishDateRange | 2024 |
| publishDateSort | 2024 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oai:cris.upeu.edu.pe:20.500.15037/11752026-10-30T16:15:18ZMeteorological factors, population immunity, and COVID-19 incidence: A global multi-city analysisDenise FeurerTim RiffeMaxi S. KniffkaEnrique AcostaBen ArmstrongMalcolm MistryRachel LoweDominic RoyéMasahiro HashizumeLina MadaniyaziChris Fook Sheng NgAurelio Tobı́asCarmen ÍñiguezAna María Vicedo-CabreraMartina S. RagettliÉric LavignePatricia Matus CorreaNicolás Valdés OrtegaJan KyselýAleš UrbanHans OrruEne IndermitteMarek MaasikmetsMarco DallavalleAlexandra SchneiderYasushi HondaBarrak AlahmadAntonella ZanobettiJoel SchwartzGabriel Carrasco‐EscobarIulian‐Horia HolobâcăHo KimWhanhee LeeMichelle L. BellNoah ScovronickFiorella AcquaottaMicheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio CoêlhoMagali Hurtado‐DíazEunice Elizabeth Félix ArellanoPaola MichelozziMassimo StafoggiaFrancesca de’DonatoShilpa RaoFrancesco Di RuscioXerxes SeposoYuming GuoShilu TongPierre MasselotAntonio GasparriniFrancesco SeraCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Incidence (geometry)ImmunityPopulationSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)2019-20 coronavirus outbreakGeographyMedicineVirologyImmunologyEnvironmental healthImmune systemMathematicsInternal medicineInfectious disease (medical specialty)DiseaseOutbreakGeometryCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Incidence (geometry)ImmunityPopulationSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)2019-20 coronavirus outbreakGeographyMedicineVirologyImmunologyEnvironmental healthImmune systemMathematicsInternal medicineInfectious disease (medical specialty)DiseaseOutbreakPhysical Sciences Mathematics Modeling and Simulation COVID-19 epidemiological studiesPhysical Sciences Environmental Science Global and Planetary Change COVID-19 impact on air qualityHealth Sciences Medicine Infectious Diseases SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 ResearchObjectives: While COVID-19 continues to challenge the world, meteorological variables are thought to impact COVID-19 transmission. Previous studies showed evidence of negative associations between high temperature and absolute humidity on COVID-19 transmission. Our research aims to fill the knowledge gap on the modifying effect of vaccination rates and strains on the weather-COVID-19 association. Methods: Our study included COVID-19 data from 439 cities in 22 countries spanning 3 February 2020 - 31 August 2022 and meteorological variables (temperature, relative humidity, absolute humidity, solar radiation, and precipitation). We used a two-stage time-series design to assess the association between meteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence. For the exposure modeling, we used distributed lag nonlinear models with a lag of up to 14 days. Finally, we pooled the estimates using a random effect meta-analytic model and tested vaccination rates and dominant strains as possible effect modifiers. Results: Our results showed an association between temperature and absolute humidity on COVID-19 transmission. At 5 °C, the relative risk of COVID-19 incidence is 1.22-fold higher compared to a reference level at 17 °C. Correlated with temperature, we observed an inverse association for absolute humidity. We observed a tendency of increased risk on days without precipitation, but no association for relative humidity and solar radiation. No interaction between vaccination rates or strains on the weather-COVID-19 association was observed. Conclusions: This study strengthens previous evidence of a relationship of temperature and absolute humidity with COVID-19 incidence. Furthermore, no evidence was found that vaccinations and strains significantly modify the relationship between environmental factors and COVID-19 transmission.Articlehttps://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39534387https://doi.org/10.1097/ee9.000000000000033810.1097/ee9.0000000000000338https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.15037/1175W4404228601enEnvironmental Epidemiology2474-78822024-11-112026-06-13T09:48:49Z2026-06-13T09:48:49Z |
| spellingShingle | Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Incidence (geometry) Immunity Population Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak Geography Medicine Virology Immunology Environmental health Immune system Mathematics Internal medicine Infectious disease (medical specialty) Disease Outbreak Geometry Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Incidence (geometry) Immunity Population Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak Geography Medicine Virology Immunology Environmental health Immune system Mathematics Internal medicine Infectious disease (medical specialty) Disease Outbreak Physical Sciences Mathematics Modeling and Simulation COVID-19 epidemiological studies Physical Sciences Environmental Science Global and Planetary Change COVID-19 impact on air quality Health Sciences Medicine Infectious Diseases SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research Denise Feurer Tim Riffe Maxi S. Kniffka Enrique Acosta Ben Armstrong Malcolm Mistry Rachel Lowe Dominic Royé Masahiro Hashizume Lina Madaniyazi Chris Fook Sheng Ng Aurelio Tobı́as Carmen Íñiguez Ana María Vicedo-Cabrera Martina S. Ragettli Éric Lavigne Patricia Matus Correa Nicolás Valdés Ortega Jan Kyselý Aleš Urban Hans Orru Ene Indermitte Marek Maasikmets Marco Dallavalle Alexandra Schneider Yasushi Honda Barrak Alahmad Antonella Zanobetti Joel Schwartz Gabriel Carrasco‐Escobar Iulian‐Horia Holobâcă Ho Kim Whanhee Lee Michelle L. Bell Noah Scovronick Fiorella Acquaotta Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho Magali Hurtado‐Díaz Eunice Elizabeth Félix Arellano Paola Michelozzi Massimo Stafoggia Francesca de’Donato Shilpa Rao Francesco Di Ruscio Xerxes Seposo Yuming Guo Shilu Tong Pierre Masselot Antonio Gasparrini Francesco Sera Meteorological factors, population immunity, and COVID-19 incidence: A global multi-city analysis |
| title | Meteorological factors, population immunity, and COVID-19 incidence: A global multi-city analysis |
| title_full | Meteorological factors, population immunity, and COVID-19 incidence: A global multi-city analysis |
| title_fullStr | Meteorological factors, population immunity, and COVID-19 incidence: A global multi-city analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Meteorological factors, population immunity, and COVID-19 incidence: A global multi-city analysis |
| title_short | Meteorological factors, population immunity, and COVID-19 incidence: A global multi-city analysis |
| title_sort | meteorological factors population immunity and covid 19 incidence a global multi city analysis |
| topic | Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Incidence (geometry) Immunity Population Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak Geography Medicine Virology Immunology Environmental health Immune system Mathematics Internal medicine Infectious disease (medical specialty) Disease Outbreak Geometry Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Incidence (geometry) Immunity Population Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak Geography Medicine Virology Immunology Environmental health Immune system Mathematics Internal medicine Infectious disease (medical specialty) Disease Outbreak Physical Sciences Mathematics Modeling and Simulation COVID-19 epidemiological studies Physical Sciences Environmental Science Global and Planetary Change COVID-19 impact on air quality Health Sciences Medicine Infectious Diseases SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research |
| topic_facet | Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Incidence (geometry) Immunity Population Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak Geography Medicine Virology Immunology Environmental health Immune system Mathematics Internal medicine Infectious disease (medical specialty) Disease Outbreak Geometry Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Incidence (geometry) Immunity Population Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak Geography Medicine Virology Immunology Environmental health Immune system Mathematics Internal medicine Infectious disease (medical specialty) Disease Outbreak Physical Sciences Mathematics Modeling and Simulation COVID-19 epidemiological studies Physical Sciences Environmental Science Global and Planetary Change COVID-19 impact on air quality Health Sciences Medicine Infectious Diseases SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research |
| url | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39534387 https://doi.org/10.1097/ee9.0000000000000338 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.15037/1175 |
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