Short-term association between hot nights and mortality: a multicountry analysis in 178 locations considering hourly ambient temperature
BACKGROUND: The rise in hot nights over recent decades and projections of further increases due to climate change underscores the critical need to understand their impact. This knowledge is essential for shaping public health strategies and guiding adaptation efforts. Despite their significance, res...
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2025
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| author | Dominic Royé Francesco Sera Aurelio Tobı́as Masahiro Hashizume Yasushi Honda Ho Kim Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera Shilu Tong Éric Lavigne Jan Kyselý Mathilde Pascal Francesca de’Donato Susana das Neves Pereira da Silva Joana Madureira Veronika Huber Aleš Urban Joel Schwartz Michelle L. Bell Ben Armstrong Carmen Íñiguez Rosana Abrutzky Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva Patricia Matus Correa Nicolás Valdés Ortega Haidong Kan Samuel Osorio Antonio Gasparrini Souzana Achilleos Hans Orru Ene Indermitte Niilo Ryti Alexandra Schneider Klea Katsouyanni Antonis Analitis Fatemeh Mayvaneh Alireza Enteyari Raanan Raz Paola Michelozzi Yoonhee Kim Barrak Alahmad John Paul Cauchi Magali Hurtado‐Díaz Eunice Elizabeth Félix Arellano Ala Overcenco Jochem O. Klompmaker Gabriel Carrasco Xerxes Seposo Paul Lester Chua Iulian‐Horia Holobâcă Yuming Guo Jouni J. K. Jaakkola Noah Scovronick Fiorella Acquaotta Whanhee Lee Bertil Forsberg Martina S. Ragettli Shanshan Li Antonella Zanobetti Valentina Colistro Trần Ngọc Đăng Do Van Dung |
| author_browse | Ala Overcenco Alexandra Schneider Aleš Urban Alireza Enteyari Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera Antonella Zanobetti Antonio Gasparrini Antonis Analitis Aurelio Tobı́as Barrak Alahmad Ben Armstrong Bertil Forsberg Carmen Íñiguez Do Van Dung Dominic Royé Ene Indermitte Eunice Elizabeth Félix Arellano Fatemeh Mayvaneh Fiorella Acquaotta Francesca de’Donato Francesco Sera Gabriel Carrasco Haidong Kan Hans Orru Ho Kim Iulian‐Horia Holobâcă Jan Kyselý Joana Madureira Jochem O. Klompmaker Joel Schwartz John Paul Cauchi Jouni J. K. Jaakkola Klea Katsouyanni Magali Hurtado‐Díaz Martina S. Ragettli Masahiro Hashizume Mathilde Pascal Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho Michelle L. Bell Nicolás Valdés Ortega Niilo Ryti Noah Scovronick Paola Michelozzi Patricia Matus Correa Paul Lester Chua Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva Raanan Raz Rosana Abrutzky Samuel Osorio Shanshan Li Shilu Tong Souzana Achilleos Susana das Neves Pereira da Silva Trần Ngọc Đăng Valentina Colistro Veronika Huber Whanhee Lee Xerxes Seposo Yasushi Honda Yoonhee Kim Yuming Guo Éric Lavigne |
| author_facet | Dominic Royé Francesco Sera Aurelio Tobı́as Masahiro Hashizume Yasushi Honda Ho Kim Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera Shilu Tong Éric Lavigne Jan Kyselý Mathilde Pascal Francesca de’Donato Susana das Neves Pereira da Silva Joana Madureira Veronika Huber Aleš Urban Joel Schwartz Michelle L. Bell Ben Armstrong Carmen Íñiguez Rosana Abrutzky Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva Patricia Matus Correa Nicolás Valdés Ortega Haidong Kan Samuel Osorio Antonio Gasparrini Souzana Achilleos Hans Orru Ene Indermitte Niilo Ryti Alexandra Schneider Klea Katsouyanni Antonis Analitis Fatemeh Mayvaneh Alireza Enteyari Raanan Raz Paola Michelozzi Yoonhee Kim Barrak Alahmad John Paul Cauchi Magali Hurtado‐Díaz Eunice Elizabeth Félix Arellano Ala Overcenco Jochem O. Klompmaker Gabriel Carrasco Xerxes Seposo Paul Lester Chua Iulian‐Horia Holobâcă Yuming Guo Jouni J. K. Jaakkola Noah Scovronick Fiorella Acquaotta Whanhee Lee Bertil Forsberg Martina S. Ragettli Shanshan Li Antonella Zanobetti Valentina Colistro Trần Ngọc Đăng Do Van Dung |
| author_sort | Dominic Royé |
| collection | Producción científica |
| description | BACKGROUND: The rise in hot nights over recent decades and projections of further increases due to climate change underscores the critical need to understand their impact. This knowledge is essential for shaping public health strategies and guiding adaptation efforts. Despite their significance, research on the implications of hot nights remains limited. OBJECTIVE: This study estimated the association between hot-night excess (the sum of excess heat during the nighttime above a threshold) and duration (the percent of nighttime with a positive excess) based on hourly ambient temperatures and daily mortality in the warm season over multiple locations worldwide. METHODS: We fitted time series regression models to mortality in 178 locations across 44 countries using a distributed lag non-linear model over lags of 0-3 days, controlling for daily maximum temperature and daily mean absolute humidity. Next, we used a multivariate meta-regression model to pool results and estimated attributable burdens. RESULTS: We found a positive, increasing mortality risk with hot-night excess and duration. Assuming 0 as a reference, the pooled relative risks of death associated with extreme excess and duration, defined as the 90th percentile in each index, were both similar at 1.026 (95 % CI, 1.017; 1.036) and 1.026 (95 % CI, 1.013; 1.040). The overall estimated attributable fractions were also observed to be closely similar at 0.60 % (95 % CI, 0.09; 1.10 %) and 0.62 % (95 % CI, 0.00; 1.23 %), respectively. DISCUSSION: This study provides new evidence that hot nights have a specific contribution to heat-related mortality risk. Modeling thermal characteristics' sub-hourly impact on mortality during the night could improve decision-making for long-term adaptions and preventive public health strategies. |
| format | Article |
| id | oai:cris.upeu.edu.pe:20.500.15037/1166 |
| institution | UPeU |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publishDateRange | 2025 |
| publishDateSort | 2025 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oai:cris.upeu.edu.pe:20.500.15037/11662026-10-30T16:15:17ZShort-term association between hot nights and mortality: a multicountry analysis in 178 locations considering hourly ambient temperatureDominic RoyéFrancesco SeraAurelio Tobı́asMasahiro HashizumeYasushi HondaHo KimAna Maria Vicedo-CabreraShilu TongÉric LavigneJan KyselýMathilde PascalFrancesca de’DonatoSusana das Neves Pereira da SilvaJoana MadureiraVeronika HuberAleš UrbanJoel SchwartzMichelle L. BellBen ArmstrongCarmen ÍñiguezRosana AbrutzkyMicheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio CoêlhoPaulo Hilario Nascimento SaldivaPatricia Matus CorreaNicolás Valdés OrtegaHaidong KanSamuel OsorioAntonio GasparriniSouzana AchilleosHans OrruEne IndermitteNiilo RytiAlexandra SchneiderKlea KatsouyanniAntonis AnalitisFatemeh MayvanehAlireza EnteyariRaanan RazPaola MichelozziYoonhee KimBarrak AlahmadJohn Paul CauchiMagali Hurtado‐DíazEunice Elizabeth Félix ArellanoAla OvercencoJochem O. KlompmakerGabriel CarrascoXerxes SeposoPaul Lester ChuaIulian‐Horia HolobâcăYuming GuoJouni J. K. JaakkolaNoah ScovronickFiorella AcquaottaWhanhee LeeBertil ForsbergMartina S. RagettliShanshan LiAntonella ZanobettiValentina ColistroTrần Ngọc ĐăngDo Van DungEnvironmental scienceTerm (time)MeteorologyAtmospheric sciencesClimatologyGeographyGeologyPhysicsQuantum mechanicsEnvironmental scienceTerm (time)MeteorologyAtmospheric sciencesClimatologyGeographyGeologyHot Temperature adverse effectsHot Temperature adverse effectsHumansHumansMortalityMortalitySeasonsSeasonsClimate ChangeClimate ChangePhysical Sciences Environmental Science Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis Climate Change and Health ImpactsHealth Sciences Medicine Physiology Thermoregulation and physiological responsesHealth Sciences Medicine Critical Care and Intensive Care Medicine Thermal Regulation in MedicineBACKGROUND: The rise in hot nights over recent decades and projections of further increases due to climate change underscores the critical need to understand their impact. This knowledge is essential for shaping public health strategies and guiding adaptation efforts. Despite their significance, research on the implications of hot nights remains limited. OBJECTIVE: This study estimated the association between hot-night excess (the sum of excess heat during the nighttime above a threshold) and duration (the percent of nighttime with a positive excess) based on hourly ambient temperatures and daily mortality in the warm season over multiple locations worldwide. METHODS: We fitted time series regression models to mortality in 178 locations across 44 countries using a distributed lag non-linear model over lags of 0-3 days, controlling for daily maximum temperature and daily mean absolute humidity. Next, we used a multivariate meta-regression model to pool results and estimated attributable burdens. RESULTS: We found a positive, increasing mortality risk with hot-night excess and duration. Assuming 0 as a reference, the pooled relative risks of death associated with extreme excess and duration, defined as the 90th percentile in each index, were both similar at 1.026 (95 % CI, 1.017; 1.036) and 1.026 (95 % CI, 1.013; 1.040). The overall estimated attributable fractions were also observed to be closely similar at 0.60 % (95 % CI, 0.09; 1.10 %) and 0.62 % (95 % CI, 0.00; 1.23 %), respectively. DISCUSSION: This study provides new evidence that hot nights have a specific contribution to heat-related mortality risk. Modeling thermal characteristics' sub-hourly impact on mortality during the night could improve decision-making for long-term adaptions and preventive public health strategies.Articlehttps://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40882422https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2025.10971910.1016/j.envint.2025.109719https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.15037/1166W4413440040enEnvironment International0160-41201873-67502025-08-222026-06-13T09:48:24Z2026-06-13T09:48:24Z |
| spellingShingle | Environmental science Term (time) Meteorology Atmospheric sciences Climatology Geography Geology Physics Quantum mechanics Environmental science Term (time) Meteorology Atmospheric sciences Climatology Geography Geology Hot Temperature adverse effects Hot Temperature adverse effects Humans Humans Mortality Mortality Seasons Seasons Climate Change Climate Change Physical Sciences Environmental Science Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis Climate Change and Health Impacts Health Sciences Medicine Physiology Thermoregulation and physiological responses Health Sciences Medicine Critical Care and Intensive Care Medicine Thermal Regulation in Medicine Dominic Royé Francesco Sera Aurelio Tobı́as Masahiro Hashizume Yasushi Honda Ho Kim Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera Shilu Tong Éric Lavigne Jan Kyselý Mathilde Pascal Francesca de’Donato Susana das Neves Pereira da Silva Joana Madureira Veronika Huber Aleš Urban Joel Schwartz Michelle L. Bell Ben Armstrong Carmen Íñiguez Rosana Abrutzky Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva Patricia Matus Correa Nicolás Valdés Ortega Haidong Kan Samuel Osorio Antonio Gasparrini Souzana Achilleos Hans Orru Ene Indermitte Niilo Ryti Alexandra Schneider Klea Katsouyanni Antonis Analitis Fatemeh Mayvaneh Alireza Enteyari Raanan Raz Paola Michelozzi Yoonhee Kim Barrak Alahmad John Paul Cauchi Magali Hurtado‐Díaz Eunice Elizabeth Félix Arellano Ala Overcenco Jochem O. Klompmaker Gabriel Carrasco Xerxes Seposo Paul Lester Chua Iulian‐Horia Holobâcă Yuming Guo Jouni J. K. Jaakkola Noah Scovronick Fiorella Acquaotta Whanhee Lee Bertil Forsberg Martina S. Ragettli Shanshan Li Antonella Zanobetti Valentina Colistro Trần Ngọc Đăng Do Van Dung Short-term association between hot nights and mortality: a multicountry analysis in 178 locations considering hourly ambient temperature |
| title | Short-term association between hot nights and mortality: a multicountry analysis in 178 locations considering hourly ambient temperature |
| title_full | Short-term association between hot nights and mortality: a multicountry analysis in 178 locations considering hourly ambient temperature |
| title_fullStr | Short-term association between hot nights and mortality: a multicountry analysis in 178 locations considering hourly ambient temperature |
| title_full_unstemmed | Short-term association between hot nights and mortality: a multicountry analysis in 178 locations considering hourly ambient temperature |
| title_short | Short-term association between hot nights and mortality: a multicountry analysis in 178 locations considering hourly ambient temperature |
| title_sort | short term association between hot nights and mortality a multicountry analysis in 178 locations considering hourly ambient temperature |
| topic | Environmental science Term (time) Meteorology Atmospheric sciences Climatology Geography Geology Physics Quantum mechanics Environmental science Term (time) Meteorology Atmospheric sciences Climatology Geography Geology Hot Temperature adverse effects Hot Temperature adverse effects Humans Humans Mortality Mortality Seasons Seasons Climate Change Climate Change Physical Sciences Environmental Science Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis Climate Change and Health Impacts Health Sciences Medicine Physiology Thermoregulation and physiological responses Health Sciences Medicine Critical Care and Intensive Care Medicine Thermal Regulation in Medicine |
| topic_facet | Environmental science Term (time) Meteorology Atmospheric sciences Climatology Geography Geology Physics Quantum mechanics Environmental science Term (time) Meteorology Atmospheric sciences Climatology Geography Geology Hot Temperature adverse effects Hot Temperature adverse effects Humans Humans Mortality Mortality Seasons Seasons Climate Change Climate Change Physical Sciences Environmental Science Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis Climate Change and Health Impacts Health Sciences Medicine Physiology Thermoregulation and physiological responses Health Sciences Medicine Critical Care and Intensive Care Medicine Thermal Regulation in Medicine |
| url | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40882422 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2025.109719 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.15037/1166 |
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